Brody, Day-Lewis and Nicholson remain in close competition, but Gangs of the New York's Bill the Butcher has a slight edge. This category tends to favor established actors, so as a relative newcomer, Brody may have to wait another year. And while Jack is certainly an Academy favorite, About Schmidt wasn't.

The Best Actress category has gone to Hollywood prom queens in recent years (Paltrow, Roberts, Berry), and Golden Globe winner Kidman has a chance to continue the trend. But I'm giving Zellweger the edge for winning the SAG. Voters love to go for the choice that will jump up and down and nearly pee in her gown.

Chris Cooper is the closest thing to a lock in any of the acting categories. Of his competitors, he is the only one to get a respectable amount of screen time and to really show is acting chops as well. Walken won the SAG but the guild tends to favor veterans and box office moneymakers.

Streep may get nominated all the time, but lately, she hasn't really been a contender to actually take home the prize. But with a beautifully complicated performance in Adaptation, she has a great chance this year. Zeta-Jones may have won SAG, but she didn't have to compete against Golden Globe-winning Streep.

Marshall's glitzy direction in his very first feature film has already earned him a Directors Guild of America win, which historically means an Oscar win as well. But you can't count out Scorsese, who has never won the Best Director award. He just might garner enough votes for his lifetime achievement to win him a prize for a mediocre film.

It's Miramax's Golden Globe-winning musical versus Miramax's Golden-Globe-winning drama this year. While both received all the expected nomitions plus a few more, there's no doubt that Producers Guild of America taker Chicago will be bringing home the big one.